Key Terms
Definitions used throughout the Consequence Horizon Model. Each term is defined as it applies within this framework.
Consequence Horizon
The point at which a consequence stops feeling distant and starts feeling real. It is not a date or an event. It is the moment the psychological distance collapses and behaviour changes.
Drift zone
The period in which a person or organisation knows a consequence exists but feels it is far enough away to justify inaction. Risk builds during drift but does not feel urgent.
Tension zone
The period between drift and the horizon. The signals get stronger, the narrative starts to crack, and the person begins engaging with the problem rather than around it.
The five signs
Five observable indicators that someone is approaching their horizon: behavioural lag, narrative, incentive sensitivity, information filtering, and crisis threshold.
Behavioural lag
The gap between knowing something needs to change and actually doing something about it. Measured in time, not intent. The person has the information but the behaviour has not caught up.
Narrative
The story a person or organisation tells themselves to explain why the current situation is acceptable. The narrative absorbs discomfort and protects the drift. It collapses at the horizon.
Incentive sensitivity
The threshold of signal required to trigger action. People with low incentive sensitivity need the consequence to be very close before they move. The threshold varies by person and by domain.
Information filtering
The process by which people selectively engage with information that supports their current position and avoid information that would force action. In organisations, filtering happens through layers of reporting.
Crisis threshold
The point at which the signal is strong enough to override the narrative and force action. For many people, this is the horizon itself. For some, it is slightly before.
Correction
The rapid action that follows crossing the horizon. Often intense, often completed faster than expected. The correction itself is rarely the hard part.
Clarity window
The brief period after the correction when the narrative has collapsed and the person sees the situation clearly. The most valuable window for setting up structures to prevent repetition. It does not last.
The fade
The process by which clarity gives way to new narratives and the urgency of the crisis is absorbed back into daily life. Without intervention during the clarity window, the fade leads to new drift.
The cycle
The repeating pattern: drift, tension, horizon, correction, clarity, fade, drift. Most people go through this cycle multiple times across different areas of their life.
Normalisation of deviance
A concept from Diane Vaughan describing how organisations gradually accept operating outside their own standards because nothing bad has happened yet. Closely related to drift in the Consequence Horizon Model.
Compliance theatre
The practice of documenting, assessing and reporting a risk without actually managing it. The paperwork creates the appearance of action while the underlying position does not change.
Morgan Sheldon (2025)