The Consequence Horizon Model

This model comes from a simple observation. People only change when a consequence becomes real. Until that point most of us drift. We put things off, tell ourselves it will be fine, avoid the hard bits and carry on. You see it in money, health, relationships and work. You also see it in organisations when risk is left to grow without anyone stepping in.
 

The Consequence Horizon is the point where that changes. It is the moment when something stops feeling far away and starts feeling like it applies to you now. Once someone reaches that point their behaviour usually changes very quickly.
 

Why this matters
 

Everyone knows people procrastinate. Everyone knows people ignore problems or take risks they should not. What most explanations skip over is the role of distance. If something feels far away, people behave as if it does not exist. If it feels close, they behave differently. The gap between those two states is where most risk builds up.
 

This model sets that out in a way that fits real behaviour. It is not here to replace other theories. It sits alongside them and focuses on the shift point that most theories do not explain.
 

How this links to existing behavioural theories
 

There are well known ideas that explain why people make poor decisions. Prospect Theory shows that people feel losses more strongly than gains. Hyperbolic Discounting shows why people prefer rewards now rather than later. Time Preference Theory explains why short-term comfort wins over long-term benefit.
 

All of these help, but none of them show the moment where behaviour actually flips.
 

People can understand risk in theory. They can know the maths. It does not matter. They do not act until the consequence moves close enough to feel personal. That is the part this model describes. Behaviour before and after the consequence becomes real. The point where someone crosses their own horizon.
 

What happens before the horizon
 

Before the horizon people tend to:
 

Delay
Downplay problems
Build a story that protects them from acting
Avoid information that would create pressure to act
Carry more risk than they realise
 

It is not stupidity or recklessness. The consequence just does not feel close enough to matter yet.
 

What happens at the horizon
 

Once the consequence feels real enough something shifts. Behaviour tightens. People focus. They correct. They drop the stories and deal with the situation. It is usually a sharp change, not a slow one.
 

Anyone who works in enforcement, finance, compliance, health or leadership will recognise this. Nothing happens for a long time, then everything happens at once.
 

The Consequence Horizon is the point where reality becomes unavoidable. It is the point where drift turns into action.
 

The five signs
 

There are five signs that show how close someone is to their own horizon:
 

1. Behavioural lag. How long they delay after spotting a problem.

2. Narrative. How strong the story is that lets them ignore it.

3. Incentive sensitivity. How much pressure is needed before they act.

4. Information filtering. What they avoid or minimise.

5. Crisis threshold. The point where they finally accept the situation and change course.
    

If several of these start shifting, the horizon is getting close.
 

Where this applies
 

This pattern shows up everywhere. Money. Health. Family. Work. Leadership. Compliance. Risk management. Government. Technology. It is the same mechanism. When people believe they still have time they drift. When the time is up or the consequence becomes real they act.
 

What this model adds
 

Prospect Theory explains how people feel about losses.
Temporal Discounting explains why people push things into the future.
Behavioural Finance explains why investors freeze.
Cognitive Dissonance explains why people defend poor choices.

None of these define the moment where behaviour actually changes.
 

The Consequence Horizon Model focuses on that moment.
The distance to it.
The build up before it.
The reset after it.
 

It is not meant to be a grand theory. It is a practical way to understand behaviour and risk that matches what you see in real situations. Once you know how to spot someone’s horizon you understand why they are drifting, how much risk they are carrying and how close they are to changing course.
 

A living model
 

This is the first version of the model. It will develop over time. I will add more as I work through it and apply it in more areas. If you want to discuss it or suggest something, feel free to get in touch.
 

M Sheldon (2025)